14 May 2019
Article published in the Review of Financial Studies, no.6/2019, by prof. Leonardo Badea PhD, President of ASF and lec.Călin Rangu, Director ASF
Introduction
nformation and digital communication technology is present daily in our lives, both personal and professional, in services, in commerce, in supporting critical infrastructure, everywhere. If insurance is one of the main concepts of homogenization, by connecting everyone in a distributed network, through the Internet, we participate in a global, homogeneous network. Although this virtual network and its users are exposed to large and new risks, concrete threats that increasingly exploit the vulnerabilities of institutions, companies and individuals, the connection with the insurance has not yet been achieved and it is impetuous to achieve for the deployment a quiet digital life.
According to the Geneva Association[1] cyber risk is certainly the greatest challenge faced by modern economies. It can be defined as any risk arising from the use of information and communications technology including "deliberate attempt of some computer criminals who use the internet to use the networks of computers on which took control in order to change, to block or destroy computer systems, computer networks, data or programs stored times on them times transmitted by these"[2] . Cyber-attacks jeopardize the confidentiality, availability or integrity of any data or services. These lead to the interruption of business activities, of critical infrastructures (public services, energy, transportation, finance, etc.), affecting people and property.
The notion of cyber risk involves a multitude of risks that threaten the assets of companies, governments or individuals, losses generally including financial or non-financial assets, identities, disclosure of sensitive information, and disruption of business / operations.
Cyber risks result either from deliberate attacks (criminal, terrorist, backed by hostile states, activists, blackmail, or personal reasons), or accidental events (data deletions, service interruptions)[3].
According to CERT-RO report[4] on the development of cyber threats for the year 2017 cyber security alerts have increased by 25% by the year 2016, affecting 33.71% (2.89 million) unique IP addresses from Romania, of all IPs assigned to the RO. 10.32% (14.33 million) of processed alerts relate to computer systems compromised, meaning that they were either infected or have been operated[5] and used by attackers in different types of attacks.
Worldwide major attacks are on an accelerated growth according to Fig.1, in the first three months of 2019 thirteen major cyber-attacks were reported according to CSIS & Hackmageddon[6].
Figure no. 1. The annual evolution of the number of cyber-attacks between 2006 and 2018
Source: CSIS & Hackmageddon 2019 and its own processing
Based on the information available to the public according to the CSIS Technology Policy Program and hackmageddon.com, on cyber spying and cyberwar, excluding cybercrime, countries of origin and victims would be represented in Fig. 2. Long-term espionage campaigns have been treated as single events for the purpose of total incidents. Data is partial because some states hide incidents, while others fail to detect them.
Figure no. 2. Graphic representation by country of the number of cyber-attacks and casualties, aggregated from 2006 to 2019
Source: CSIS & Hackmageddon, CSIS Technology Policy Program
Estimating the cost of cyber incidents is challenging companies avoiding to report losses. Worldwide it is estimated losses caused by cyber risks at almost 0.5 percent of world GDP and almost two times more than the average annual losses caused by natural disasters[7]. If apply it at the level of Romania shall have the same percentage of 0.5% of GDP would result in losses of about 9 billion euros.
The amount of financial losses generated by cyber risk is difficult to estimate, with a lack of information. Some cybercrime activities do not have a direct cost or cannot be quantified. The industry tries to estimate the total costs, costs per incident, and the cost of recording a data breach as shown in Table 16. Fig.3 and Fig. 4 presents estimates of the average annual cost of cybercrime per domain and major affected countries.
Table no. 1. Estimated costs of cybercrime
Source: Geneva Association, 2016
According to the estimates of the multinational company Accenture, in management consultancy, technology solutions and outsourcing, between 2015 and 2018, the greatest damage to cybercrime is recorded in the area of loss of electronically stored information (about $ 6 million in 2018), followed by business disruption (about 4 million USD in 2018), turnover losses and damage to equipment (Figure 3):
Figure no. 3. Average annual cost of cybercrime on the main loss areas
Source: Accenture, 2019
Below are the estimates of the same company, by developed countries, where the US holds the record with over 27 million USD in 2018, followed by Japan, Germany United Kingdom, etc. (Figure 4).
Figure no. 4. Annual average costs of cybercrime on major affected countries
Source: Accenture, 2019
Based on a risk barometer[8], conducted through interviews with 968 participants, at the level of 2019, the main causes of the cyber-related losses were established (Figure 5):
Figure no. 5. The main causes of economic losses caused by cyber incidents
Source: Allianz Risk Barometer, 2019
As a result of the application of regulation costs further major GDPR, can be generated by damage to personal data.
With all these losses, the level of cyber-risk insurance is very low compared to the overall volume of the insurance market. Swiss Re expects that in 2025 (Figure 6) this volume will reach about 1% of the global insurance market.
Figure no. 6. Evolution of premiums written for cyber-risk insurance
Source: Swiss Re, 2018
Similar forecasts[10] also provide statistics on world-wide subscribed cyber insurance premiums over the period 2014-2020, as shown in Fig. 7.
Figure no. 7. Estimated premiums for cyber-risk insurance 2014-2020 (USD billions)
Source: © Statista 2019
In accordance with the Thematic analysis report relating to insurance risk cyberspace[11] prepared by Romanian Financial Authority (A.S.F)., risks are the responsibility of the management of the institutions and companies, as well as the level of employment, insurance cybersecurity and may cover occupational hazards posed by cyber risks.
Most property insurance policies cover physical damage (even if the interruption of activity is constantly part of the commercial property) and generally excludes cyber risk. Worldwide, less than 10% of companies are considered to have purchased cyber insurance products today. We do not have information in Romania.
Insurance is a tool that complements (and does not replace) the risk management framework that each organization should have and is therefore relevant because[12]:
Accenture[13] in 2018 presented its own analysis of the average costs of cybercrime, noting that investments in computer security had a major positive impact (Figure 8) and the correlation between the annual cost of cybercrime and the organizational dimension of affected companies (Figure 9).
Figure no. 8. The global average cost of cybercrime over the period 2013-2017
Source: Accenture, 2018
In addition, Accenture presents in 2017 a year-on-year evolution of the annual cost of cybercrime, depending on the size of the affected US companies, with a loss of more than $ 75 million for large companies. The regression of these records indicates, on average, a peak of over USD 25 million for very large firms.
Figure no. 9. The correlation between the annual cost of cybercrime and the organizational dimension of the affected companies
Source: Accenture, 2018
Deloitte[15] presented the vicious circle of cyber-insurance (Figure 10) which emphasizes that the lack of historical data is probably the fundamental challenge and contributes to tightening coverage limits on cyber-insurance markets and the emergence of exclusions such as loss of access to unsafe sites or terrorism. Some indirect effects of cyber incidents cannot be measured and as a result are not covered (for example, reputational damage)[16].
Figure no. 10. The vicious circle of cyber-insurance
Source: Deloitte, 2017
Despite all these shortcomings, global cyber-insurance products are already available globally and adapted to the client's risk profile. They allow companies to benefit from full protection against cybercrime and other cyber-incidents, indirect or external, malicious or accidental.
Despite the many cyber-risk challenges, these examples prove that there are ongoing risk models and relevant datasets. New players will increase market capacity and competition will increase.
Swiss Re expects to suddenly increase global cyber-risk insurance to $ 18 billion by 2025; however, it would still be less than 1% of the global non-life insurance market. 99% of the damage caused by cyber incidents remains uninsured.
Last but not least, the fundamental issue of cyber-security can be addressed by public-private partnerships to develop a robust trade partnership from a cyber-risk perspective.
5. Ensuring cyber-related risks is an important subject for the authorities for at least the following six reasons[17]:
1. It is an element of economic, social and political stability, both for critical, governmental and commercial and personal infrastructures, including the financial sector, and should be used in assessing financial soundness / health and supporting business by recovering rapid loss and continuation of business[18]
2. Can be an element of national security (to support the activity of the specialized institutions)
3. It is beneficial for society, as data privacy claims (ie loss of customer data by a telecom operator, healthcare system, social protection, banking and non-banking system, etc.) will have an impact on the lives of all citizens. Rapid compensation, with the financial support of an insurer, is a guarantee that these crisis-generating crises will not generate some disorder among the population for months.
4. Cyber risks cannot be eliminated as much as investing, the attackers being ahead of technical remedies. It can be financially covered by the insurance system, only a major residual risk for avoiding financial liability of institutions / companies (which may even lead to inability to pay), as well as personal, social, or even criminal.
5. Technology trends and interdependencies will bring new major cyber risks through interconnection of homes, current life through intelligent systems (IoT), artificial intelligence, robotics, etc
6. Currently rating agencies[19] and authorities demand concrete measures to eliminate cyber-related risks by requiring the application of regulations, standards, and audits that naturally complement insurance with areas where vulnerabilities cannot be technically covered. One of the most important legislative acts adopted in the field of cyber-security at European level is the European Parliament's "Network Safety and Information Systems Directive" (NIS Directive 2016/1148)[20], which sets out measures to achieve a high common level network and information security within the Union so as to improve the functioning of the internal market. This directive calls for concrete measures at the level of critical infrastructure but not only, and the rules assign responsibility to accountability and institutions / companies.
The timing of the implementation of the directive is the following NIS:
August 2016 |
- |
The entry into force of the directive |
February 2017 |
6 months |
Cooperative group commences its activities |
August 2017 |
12 months |
European Commission adopts acts implementing security and notification requirements for digital service providers |
February 2018 |
18 months |
Cooperative group work programme lays down |
9 may 2018 |
21 months |
Transposition of the directive into national law the NIS |
November 2018 |
27 months |
Member States will identify essential services operators |
May 2019 |
33 months (1 year after transposition) |
The Report Of The European Commission |
May 2021 |
57 months (3 years from transposition) |
Review by the European Commission |
The evolution of cyber threats will increase in frequency and sophistication. Institutions/companies need a comprehensive cyber risk management strategy - a strategy based on economic risk modeling, optimized cyber security, robust cyber security programs and effective response capabilities that respond in a timely and effective manner, while maintaining breaks to a minimum, and returning to normal operations as quickly as possible, with the lowest costs[21].
Generally, cyber-related risks are discussed technically, with IT concepts but this topic already transcends this area and is transposed into business, social economy, mathematical and statistical modeling, data management, uncertainty theories, risk management (for example, Maillart and Sornette 2010; Biener, Eling and Wirfs, 2015). These concepts concern the field of complexity and dependency risk structures (eg, Hofmann and Ramaj, 2011; Ögüt, Raghunathan and Menon, 2011) or the field of adverse selection and moral hazard issues (eg Gordon, Loeb and Sohail, 2003 ), Infrastructure Critical Infrastructure (eg Economic Forum, 2010, Ruffle et al., 2014, Lloyd's, 2015b, Long Finance, 2015). Existing studies confirm challenges in risk management and cyber risk[22] .
According to the Geneva Association, through Ten Key Questions on Cyber Risk and Cyber Risk Insurance[23], it was found that:
However, Maillart and Sornette (2010) investigated violations of personal data such as credit cards, social security numbers, bank accounts, or medical records. They find an exponential increase in the frequency of these incidents (the rate of events) for the period 2001-2006 (Figure 11). Regarding the distribution function illustrated in Figure 11, the violet points are the remarks before 2006, and the blue points observations after that date. While violations of personal data are just a type of cyber risk, the authors argue that these findings are representative of other types of cyber-related risks come from the Internet[24].
Figure no. 11. Distribution of severity and frequency
Source: Maillart and Sornette, 2010
Research into cyber-risk insurance includes two aspects according to the Geneva Association[25]:
· Micro perspective: demand-side research (eg risk perception, fatalism); analyzing the assurance and ways to improve the assurance (in particular empirical research, eg data generation, data analysis); the analysis of the optimal risk management (mitigation vs insurance) and the need for the capital needed to cover the cyber risks.
· Macro Perspective: scenario analyzes for measuring and managing the accumulation risk, if insurance companies can record a systemic risk with cyber risk, the actors involved become part of the global dialogue. In the absence of data, analyzes should be made more technically than statistical.
Especially for insurance purposes, a simple number of violations is not sufficient for the calculation of premiums, capital or capital reserves. Instead, a price indicator corresponding to the potential claim must be allocated to each breach of security.
Finally, classical risk measures based on mean and variance are not applicable and the merits of diversification may disappear due to infinite moments that characterize cyber risks (see Chavez-Demoulin et al., 2006).
6. Cyber-risk must be managed from several perspectives.
The classic risk management process consists of five steps:
The NIST agency of the US proposes the work framework described in Figure 12.
Figure no. 12. The framework of cyber security
Source: US Department of Commerce, 2018
At each stage of the classical risk management process, cyber risks have special features, for example, cyber-risk management is not the responsibility of the IT department, but there is a need for a company-wide dialogue on this risk (eg awareness, training, etc.).
The subject should also be embedded in the top-level C level leadership responsibilities[26].
Already institutional commitment - demonstrated by designating a person responsible for information security - is essential for successful risk management. For example, companies that already have a computer security officer (CISO) or a similar position have a lower average of events when the risk occurs, with a loss of $ 157 / record vs. $ 236 / record for firms without this position (see Shackelford, 2012).
Accenture[27] (2019) establishes a hierarchy of the main four cyber-defense activities (Figure 13).
Figure no. 13. The share of four defense against cyber risks
Source: Accenture, 2019
The first step in the risk management process is to define the initial situation and objectives of cyber risk management. Until now, there are a number of standards, especially in the field of information technology, which can serve as cyber-risk management templates, for example the ISO / IEC 2700x family, BSI-IT-Grundschutz (BSI, 2008) or Cyber Security Best Practices (Allianz, 2011). There is also the possibility to certify compliance with these standards. For example, U.K.'s Department for Business, Innovation & Skills and Office (2014) defines an IT security standard and certification of its implementation in the so-called Cyber Essentials.
Business partners and customers are increasingly asking companies to verify that they meet certain minimum IT security standards. For cyber insurance, insurers should rely on similar assessments. Companies requiring cyber-cover would need to have such certificates and the insurer should carry out a similar risk assessment[28]. Insurers will have to enter the pre-assessment consulting area to estimate cyber risks and policy issuance.
To this end, for risk identification:
There are four options for effective risk management:
a) avoiding risks,
b) risk mitigation / attenuation,
c) risk transfer
d) self-insurance.
Avoiding risks would mean that electronic storage of information and restriction of the use of information systems. In today's world, this is hard to imagine. Risk reduction and attenuation are more effective. These are tools to reduce the likelihood of occurrence (eg anti-virus software, firewalls, etc.) or to reduce the size of losses (eg disaster recovery plans).
In general, the risk transfer is possible by purchasing an insurance contract. However, the cyber insurance market is growing, the product range will grow and sufficient coverage will become viable. The combination of mitigation / mitigation and risk transfer is particularly important. An insurer will issue the policy if adequate measures are in place to mitigate / mitigate risks and the insurer has been able to verify the effectiveness of these instruments in their initial assessments. Therefore, advance assessments and interviews, or advice given directly by the insurer, are necessary before signing an insurance contract. These assessments will also contribute to raising cyber risk awareness.
In the case of self-insurance, the company decides to pay the losses on its own. In this case, the company's capital must serve as a buffer and must be allocated in advance. In addition to capital accumulation, emergency plans and crisis management must be established.
We can get the following cyber risk management guidelines by companies (see also Biener, Eling, Matt and Wirfs, 2015): institutional commitment, effective crisis management, risk dialogue with all employees, customer risk dialogue, and suppliers, certification, continuous monitoring, risk transfer by insurance as the only effective means of transferring cyber risk.
7. The risks identified must be covered by cyber-insurance coverage or not by explicit exclusions.
In general, the risks covered by the insurance of companies registered in Romania, according to the A.S.F.[30]on cyber risk insurance are:
The main exclusions from insurance are generally:
In the case of an insured event, the response rate of the insurance company may be 4 hours from the event notification.
Table no. 2 show different examples of international cyber-risk coverage in response to the different stages of cyber-attack or data losses, from FERMA (Federation of European Risk Management Association) perspectives[31].
Table no. 2 Coverage of cyber-risk insurance for attacks and data loss
Source: FERMA 2018
Conclusions
The thematic analysis of A.S.F.[32] related to cyber-risk insurance, have observed:
In view of the above, in order to achieve the coverage and the risks posed by the digital society, the following conclusions can be drawn:
Bibliography:
[1] Geneva Association - Understanding and Addressing Global Insurance Protection Gaps, aprilie 2018;
[2] CERT-RO - Raport privind evoluția amenințărilor cibernetice în 2017, aprilie 2018;
[3] Demystifying cyber insurance coverage: Clearing obstacles in a problematic but promising growth market, Deloitte, 2017
[4] WannaCry: Lessons learned following ransomware attack, Jean Bayon de La Tour, Marsh;
[5] Thomas MARCADET - Navigating through Cyber Risk, , mai 2018, prezentare Marsh;
[6] www.standardandpoors.com - Cyber Risk And Corporate Credit – June 9, 2015,;
[7] ACGS (2014)- Analyses cyber risk management with the Business Model Canvas and the House of IT Quality;
[8] Ten Key Questions on Cyber Risk and Cyber Risk Insurance, Geneva Association, nov 2016,
[9] Navigating through Cyber Risk, Thomas MARCADET, mai 2018, prezentare Marsh
[10] Cyber Risk And Corporate Credit – June 9, 2015, WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT
[11] The step down of Target’s CEO following a massive data breach in 2014 exemplifies that the top management might be held accountable for cyber incidents (http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2014/05/08/targets-ceo-steps-down-following-the-massive-data-breach-andcanadian- debacle/#799cf7283f56).
[12] ACGS (2014) analyses cyber risk management with the Business Model Canvas and the House of IT Quality.
[13] http://www.marsh-stresstest.eu/.
[14] CIS (2016) or ASD (2014) for guidance on how IT security measures, such as access control, authorisation of devices and software, malware defense, and network configuration, should be used.
[15] National Vulnerability Database (by NIST), USA- Collects software vulnerabilities for the U.S., used by Maillart and Sornette; 2010
[16] Cost of cyber crime study, pag. 12, 17, 30, Accenture, 2017
[17] Preparing for Cyber insurance(ppt), FERMA, Octombrie 2018
[18] https://wol.jw.org/ro/wol/d/r34/lp-m/102012171#h=1
[19] https://asfromania.ro/files/analize/Asigurari_risc_cibernetic.pdf
[20] Interview by Leonardo Badea, President of A.S.F.: https://www.ziarulprofit.ro/index.php/semnal-de-alarma-tras-de-presedintele-asf-asigurarea-riscului-cibernetic-o-mare-provocare-cu-care-se-confrunta-economiile-moderne/
[21] https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/RO/TXT/?qid=1479977104870&uri=CELEX:32016L1148
[22] https://www.hackmageddon.com/category/security/cyber-attacks-statistics/
[23] https://www.statista.com/markets/414/topic/461/insurance/
[1] Understanding and Addressing Global Insurance Protection Gaps, Geneva Association, April 2018
[3] Interview by Leonardo Badea, President of A.S.F.: https://www.ziarulprofit.ro/index.php/semnal-de-alarma-tras-de-presedintele-asf-asigurarea-riscului-cibernetic-o-mare-provocare-cu-care-se-confrunta-economiile-moderne/
[4] Raport privind evoluția amenințărilor cibernetice în 2017, CERT-RO, aprilie 2018,
[5] Interview by Leonardo Badea, President of A.S.F.: https://www.ziarulprofit.ro/index.php/semnal-de-alarma-tras-de-presedintele-asf-asigurarea-riscului-cibernetic-o-mare-provocare-cu-care-se-confrunta-economiile-moderne/
[7] Understanding and Addressing Global Insurance Protection Gaps, Geneva Association, April 2018
[8] Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty, Allianz Risk Barometer, 2019
[9] https://asfromania.ro/files/analize/Asigurari_risc_cibernetic.pdf
[11] 10 https://asfromania.ro/files/analize/Asigurari_risc_cibernetic.pdf
[13] Cost of cyber crime study, pag. 12, 17, Accenture, 2017
[14] Ten Key Questions on Cyber Risk and Cyber Risk Insurance, Geneva Association, nov 2016,
[15] Demystifying cyber insurance coverage: Clearing obstacles in a problematic but promising growth market, Deloitte, 2017
[16] Understanding and Addressing Global Insurance Protection Gaps, Geneva Association, aprilie 2018,
[17] Navigating through Cyber Risk, Thomas MARCADET, mai 2018, prezentare Marsh
[19] Cyber Risk And Corporate Credit – June 9, 2015, WWW.STANDARDANDPOORS.COM/RATINGSDIRECT
[21] WannaCry: Lessons learned following ransomware attack, Jean Bayon de La Tour, Marsh
[22] https://www.stiripesurse.ro/asigurarea-riscului-cibernetic-o-mare-provocare-cu-care-se-confrunta-economiile-moderne_1270359.html
[23] Ten Key Questions on Cyber Risk and Cyber Risk Insurance, Geneva Association, may 2016
[24] National Vulnerability Database (by NIST)- Collects software vulnerabilities for the U.S., used by Maillart and Sornette; 2010
[25] Understanding and Addressing Global Insurance Protection Gaps, Geneva Association, April 2018
[26] The step down of Target’s CEO following a massive data breach in 2014 exemplifies that the top management might be held accountable for cyber incidents (http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2014/05/08/targets-ceo-steps-down-following-the-massive-data-breach-andcanadian- debacle/#799cf7283f56).
[27] Cost of cyber crime study, pag. 30, Accenture, 2017
[28] ACGS (2014) analyses cyber risk management with the Business Model Canvas and the House of IT Quality.
[29] http://www.marsh-stresstest.eu/.
[30] https://asfromania.ro/files/analize/Asigurari_risc_cibernetic.pdf
[31] Preparing for Cyber insurance, FERMA, Octombrie 2018
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